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CFB: College Football SEC Style

CFB: College Football SEC Style


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CFB: College Football SEC Style

It might seem that every Saturday each fall is filled with big games in the SEC but in recent history


2008-10-10

It might seem that every Saturday each fall is filled with big games in the SEC but in recent history, no rivalry has been bigger than that between LSU & Florida, the countryís last two national champions. With SEC supremacy and national title consideration hanging in the balance, the Gators and Tigers will go at it from the Swamp. After opening as 5-point favorites, Tim Tebow & Co. have been brought up to -6, despite 66% of the money coming in on LSU. Not to be outdone, there is also a little game down in Athens, between Georgia and Tennessee.

LSU @ Florida (-6, Total = 47)
LSU didnít have their ďAĒ game playing Mississippi State at home two weeks ago and didnít need it in 34-24 non-cover. Despite losing oodles of players to the NFL this decade, the beat goes on in Baton Rouge, with new stars waiting to emerge. Les Miles club passed its first serious test at Auburn 26-21 with stupendous fourth quarter drive to seal victory. They will need an even better effort in Gainesville to stay unbeaten and in the chase to SEC title. Running back Charles Scott has been in triple digits rushing in each of LSU's four victories. Redshirt freshman QB Jarrett Lee has been steady also according to coach Miles, "That's all we wanted from Jarrett Lee, to get the ball to the guys that the play calls for. Read it and throw it, and he did that. I thought he handled the games very well." The Tigers are 7-4-3 ATS as SEC visitorís the last three seasons.

After being stunned in The Swamp in conference home opener to Mississippi, just the second such loss in two decades, Florida is back home after laying waste of Arkansas 38-7. Many of the same issues from last season have manifested themselves. The offensive line was pedestrian in 2007 and remains so in 2008. The surprising lack of a running back to be a stud doesnít help the O-Line and the receiving group other than Percy Harvin, doesnít create enough space for Tim Tebow to feel comfortable throwing to them. This will be a big exam for the defense that played marvelous in all games but Ole Miss, a test of manhood for the Gators against physical LSU. Florida is off next week and is 15-5 and 13-6 ATS prior to bye.



Florida has a very sharp angle in their favor. The Gators are 15-1-1 ATS with revenge and off a SU win and cover. The underdog is 7-4 ATS in last 11 matchups, which include three outright upsets in last six years.
* StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: Florida by 19

Tennessee @ Georgia (-11.5, Total = 42)
Everything went wrong for Georgia in being defeated by Alabama 41-30 at home and they have had two weeks to regroup. The Bulldogs defense was C-USA-like and they are 9-2 ATS after allowing 37 or more points. Knowshon Moreno is questionable at best for this matchup and Mark Richt teams are surprising 8-8 ATS off a loss. Tennessee has nobody to blame but themselves for all three defeats this season. Offensive miscues in particular have been costly. The best news is the Vols are 21-8 ATS as visitors this month. The road club is 4-1 SU and ATS, with the average score differential 16.8 points per game.
* StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says Georgia by 9

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