CFB: LIBERTY BOWL - EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)


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CFB: LIBERTY BOWL - EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)
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CFB: LIBERTY BOWL - EAST CAROLINA vs. KENTUCKY (5:00 PM ET, ESPN)

It seems as though bettors haven't caught win yet of the amazing Liberty Bowl trend that finds the UNDER the total having won in 13 of the last 16 contests. Either that, or 75% of them are simply convinced that East Carolina and Kentucky will exceed this


2008-12-31

It seems as though bettors haven't caught win yet of the amazing Liberty Bowl trend that finds the UNDER the total having won in 13 of the last 16 contests. Either that, or 75% of them are simply convinced that East Carolina and Kentucky will exceed this year's posted number of 41. The Pirates, out of Conference USA, are also a 3-point favorite over the SEC's Kentucky.

Other than Florida and Alabama, not a banner year for the SEC and the last thing they would want is to take a hit to reputation losing to C-USA team, even if they are the conference champs. Kentucky is on a 3-game losing streak, finishing 2-6 SU and ATS in the SEC. The Wildcats defense wilted down the stretch and they are 8-19 ATS in road games after not covering the spread in 2 out of last 3. East Carolina had three seasons, the first and last parts were outstanding with not much in the middle. When called upon, the Pirates were up ready and upset Tulsa 27-24 and are 9-0 ATS as visitors after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Kentucky is an underdog and is 4-1 ATS in this spot.

Liberty Bowl Series Trend: Typically renowned for matching high scoring teams from Conference USA against the SEC, Mountain West, or WAC conferences, this bowl game series has gone UNDER the total in 13 of the last 16 games. The SEC is a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS in its last three chances.

Top ATS Trend
• E CAROLINA is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. The average score was E CAROLINA 33.0, OPPONENT 29.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Top Totals Trend
• KENTUCKY is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992. The average score was KENTUCKY 21.0, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 1*)

Recent EAST CAROLINA Bowl Game Trends
* E CAROLINA is 0-2 SU & ATS in L2 bowl games as a favorite.
* The underdog has dominated E CAROLINA bowl games, 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.
* In E CAROLINA bowl games with totals less than 50, UNDER is 3-0.

Recent KENTUCKY Bowl Game Trends
* KENTUCKY has gone UNDER the total in four of its L5 bowl games.
* The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the L7 KENTUCKY bowl games.
* KENTUCKY is 4-1 ATS in its L5 as a bowl game underdog.

StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings say: EAST CAROLINA by 3

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